MARKET ON THE RISE
Stock markets continued its positive trajectory from the beginning of the month. This positive trend was fuelled by several key factors
PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS
Underinvested sectors play catch up: Small Cap stocks beginning to outperform large cap brethren, as stock market rally broadens.
New Leadership: US small caps leading the charge, and the FTSE UK All Share posting strong gains.
SECTOR STANDOUTS AND LAGGARDS (as of Mid-March)
Energy Surges: The Energy sector emerged as a potential frontrunner, with gains exceeding 5%. This was likely driven by a rebound in oil prices, fuelled by increased global demand and production cuts by major oil-producing nations.
Utilities Lag: The Utilities sector, along with other defensive sectors, continue to lag as markets discard more defensive sectors with rosy growth expectations and an easier rate outlook.
Central Bank Updates (as of Mid-March)
Geopolitical Landscape: While tensions simmered in some regions, no major geopolitical incidents significantly disrupted financial markets by mid-March.
Central Bank Dovishness: The Federal Reserve has confirmed its expectations for three 0.25% rate cuts before the year is out.
HEADLINES AND MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (as of Mid-March)
Economic Data Strength: ISM Manufacturing data was positive for the first time since 2022.
ECB Stands Pat for Now: Christine Lagarde kept the ECB borrowing rate at 4%, but suggested they could cut again in June.
PERFORMANCE IN OTHER ASSET CLASSES (as of Mid-March)
Fixed Income: Bond yields could have remained relatively low, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield potentially hovering around 4.1%.
Currencies: The U.S. Dollar could have remained stable against major currencies as investors continued to hold riskier assets due to positive economic data and central bank pronouncements.
Commodities: Ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, falling US rig count tightened the supply outlook in March, leading to a significant rally in oil prices. Precious Metals: Gold prices might have remained relatively flat, hovering near $1,800 per ounce. Silver prices could have exhibited some volatility but potentially ended the first half of March slightly higher than February.
OVERALL
Markets are on course for a 5th successive monthly gain, supported by central bank forecasts of lower rates and an improving economic data with jobs markets holding firm.